A draft letter regarding pandemics which church leaders could send to churches (NB - an updated version of this is being worked on which church leaders might jointly sign).
DRAFT Letter to go out to from the national or regional church leader to the denomination’s parishes 


Dear Friends

Preparing for a Pandemic or other major Emergency

The Churches have been alerted by the Government to the need to take steps to prepare ourselves and our people for the possibility of New Zealand being caught up in an Avian flu pandemic. While it is by no means certain that there will be a flu pandemic and we needn’t be panicked by the thought of such a possibility, we should be prepared just in case.

We are told that the World Health Organisation (WHO) has made it clear that in time there will be a world wide pandemic caused by a bird flu virus which mutates into a form that is able to be transmitted from human to human. The situation is “when”  not ‘if” it will happen. The WHO is encouraging Governments to prepare accordingly. The New Zealand Government has accepted this advice and planning is being co-ordinated by the Ministry of Health.

In the event of a pandemic reaching New Zealand, our Church leadership wants all our parishes / branches and parishioners to be prepared with their own action plans. The aim for parishes will be to seek to provide advice, care and support to parishioners before, during and after a influenza pandemic and to assist where possible, others looking for spiritual, emotional and pastoral support to help them stay connected to their world during the various stages. The local parish will be one of the key support networks in each community.

A scenario being used for planning purposes, based on our 4 million population and what happened in 1918 when there was only a population of 1 million, is as follows:

1.    Based on Ministry of Health modeling in a pandemic, 40% of all New Zealanders could be infected with the bird flu virus. Up to 50% of people could be off work and 2% of those affected could die (i.e.approximately 1% of the population). 

2.    The flu would likely move through the country in 3 waves, of up to 8 weeks, with 8 weeks interval between waves. Up to 1.6 million people could become ill, and up to 33,000 people could die with the maximum deaths peaking at around 10,500 in the middle period of the second wave ( NZ currently has around 550 deaths each week, so such a concentrated number of deaths would swamp NZ’s normal funeral arrangements.) This is just a scenario for planning purposes, so the reality could be better or worse than this; predictions can’t be made until a virus acquires the ability to be transmitted person to person and there is some experience of how it is behaving.

3.    The virus would be spread by small droplets of body fluid, sneezed into the air, but most likely  transmitted by hands  through person to person touch, and sharing towels, door handles, computer keyboards, telephones etc. For at least part of the period the country, or significant areas of it, would be likely to be operating under emergency conditions, which would discourage people from meeting together. So there could be no public meetings, including  no church services or funeral services.

4.    Private travel could be restricted. Schools will be closed and parents will need to be home caring for children or other dependent family. Key services such as hospitals, emergency services, police and military will also be affected and will need to be staffed by people who are not sick and not needing to be with their own families as the primary care givers. Some people working may have to stay at work throughout the period of the pandemic, or the isolation phases, so they may be separated from their families for a lengthy period.

5.    Much dislocation can be expected. Each day there are 6,000 people traveling internationally towards New Zealand as their intended destination.  This means that out breaks of flu in countries overseas especially in Asia where the current flu is most prevalent, could reach NZ very quickly. If countries, including New Zealand asdisease management option, close borders, then New Zealanders could be stranded overseas and overseas people could be stranded here.

6.   The main means of safe person to person communication outside of immediate family is likely to be by telephone, email and internet, or some form of pre-arranged physical signal – such as hanging a towel in a window as a sign that help is needed. The intention is that our parishes should not duplicate what has already been planned by Central Government, District Health Boards, Local Authorities and Civil defence Emergency Management groups, Emergency services and the Funeral Directors Association. Rather parishes and other church bodies need to know what the local plans in their area are, so that parishes can then focus Parish Action Plans on the areas for which the parish is responsible or has the resources to help with. For example your parishioners, and the particular ministry the parish can offer such as pastoral and emotional care, spiritual support, worship and prayer and how you can safely reach out and support those on the margins of your community. The aged, the disabled, those living alone etc.
Parishes may also be able to offer physical resources such as buildings, transport etc. as well as being a reliable source of information on how best to prepare for, and respond to, an influenza pandemic.

With this letter is a copy of the contingencies we will be wanting to plan for and the Protocols we intend to operate within at our national, regional and parish levels. The Boards of our Theological Colleges, Mission Aged Care Homes and Hospitals and Counselling agencies etc are encouraged to make their own appropriate Action Plans to cover their services and activities to provide for the people they serve.

I repeat, we don’t need to panic. There is no evidence that an influenza pandemic is imminent, but the WHO advises there are enough worrisome signs to take steps to be well prepared just in case.  As Christians we have a responsibility to help, share and care as we are able. We have significant resources and the faith to assist in the support of one another and those in our communities who might require our support if such an eventuality occurs.

I encourage you to be alert to the messages from the Government and the other relevant agencies. Please pray for protection for those affected in different parts of the world, especially for those who have lost family members through contracting the current flu virus.

Grace and Peace



National leader

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